The Top 10 - ATP

Our very own Karen emailed this to me:

This is my first ever time attempting to write a post about tennis and let me first start out by saying that my only experience with tennis is my love of the game, watching it on TV, reading other people’s analysis and my amateur game. As such, anything that is posted here is from my own observations and therefore should not be accepted as expert opinion. This post is to promote dialogue and to let us as fans take an analytical look at the makeup of the ATP and WTA Top 10.

ATP

1. Rafael Nadal – perhaps the most mentally tough player ever seen in tennis. Other strengths: forehand, movement, speed. Weaknesses: backhand and health. There is the perception that if Nadal remains healthy there is nothing to prevent him from winning at least 15 slams and over 20 Masters Series shields. But can Nadal remain healthy, giving his grinding style of play? Some say that Nadal has improved his game and is no longer a grinder, but after watching him at this year’s Australian Open, and during the back-to-back Masters events in the US, I wonder if he will be able to accomplish this feat. I say no.
2. Roger Federer – what has not been written about Federer? I admit that he is a favorite of mine and as such I am hopeful that I can remain objective. Strengths: serve and forehand, all-court game, variety. Weaknesses: backhand, age and health. Roger is 27-years-old and there is the perception that he may never reach Pete Sampras’ mark of 14 majors. Has his time passed to win more majors and Masters shields? I say no. History may prove me wrong.
3. Novak Djokovic – Novak has been performing much better during this year’s clay court tourneys, having reached the finals of Monte-Carlo and Rome. Strenghts: forehand and down-the-line backhand. Weaknesses: health and mental fragility. Novak is already the winner of a Slam and has reached the semis or better of each of the Masters events played this year. That is no mean accomplishment. Will he be able to sustain that momentum heading into the Roland Garros and defend his points from last year? At the present time, I would say yes, as he has been consistent this year. As to whether he will add to his majors collections, I think his best bet may come at another run Down Under.
4. Andy Murray – Murray has been called the tactician of the ATP. He has been lauded as being a thinking man’s player. Strengths: backhand and facility in changing the direction of the ball. Weaknesses: second serve and mental lapses. For my money I do not see Murray winning a major anytime soon for he has not proven that he is capable of withstanding a run over 2 weeks, playing best-of-5 set matches. As a friend of mine said until he wins a big one he will be forever known as a 3-set player.
5. Juan Martin del Potro – yes, he really is ranked this high. For now all I can say is that this young man has a big serve and that's about it. He has not proven himself in the majors, neither has he proven that he can take out the big guys when it matters at the Masters events. I do not see him winning a major at all.
6. Andy Roddick – Slam champion and owner of a four Masters. Strengths: Serve and forehand. Weaknesses: Backhand, transition game, mental fragility. Andy has retooled his game with different coaches, the latest being Larry Stefanki, who has encouraged his charge to lose weight, which has made him leaner and fitter than he has been in years. Is Andy capable of holding up a major for one last time in his distinguished career? I say age and getting married might take some of the hunger out of Andy. He has a young wife, and I am sure that not only will he be concentrating on perhaps starting a family with her, but also perhaps cutting back on his Davis Cup duties. If he does win another Slam, it will be Wimbledon.
7. Fernando Verdasco – Unfulfilled potential. Strengths: first serve and forehand. Weaknesses: Mental fragility. He's already into the latter stages of his career and no amount of off court training on the body can help what is not in the mind. No majors.
8. Gilles Simon – I didn't even hear of him until 2008. I have watched him play and all I can say he reminds me of Lleyton Hewitt circa 2000, but certainly not as good. Classic counterpuncher who frustrates his opponents into errors. Nothing major and no majors.
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – a big bundle of talent. Strengths: serve, forehand, transition game. Weaknesses: Prone to injuries, inconsistency. Last year's surprise Melbourne finalist fell off the radar when he endured an abdominal injury. Has been more consistent upon his return to win his first Masters shield in Bercy. Has wins over Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray. If he's going to have another Slam run, look anywhere but his home Slam. He's got the game to win a major and wouldn't need a Top 5 player to have an off day to do so.
   
10. Gael Monfils – another Frenchman with unfulfilled potential. Strengths: Great movement, great serve. Weaknesses: Prone to injuries. More entertainer than professional tennis player. Had his chance last year to at least make the finals of Roland Garros, but fell to Federer in the semis. Even if he stays healthy (and that's a big ask) I just do not see him winning any majors or Masters shields events.

My WTA analysis is forthcoming. But I realized that the ATP Top 10 is no better off than the WTA for boasting players with the ability to win majors.