Wimbledon 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

by Mad Professah, contributing writer 

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year's I correctly predicted the results of 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals right before I got on a plane to London to attend the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.  

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (6) Mardy Fish USA (10). Who would have thought that the last American player remaining in the draw at Wimbledon deep in the second week would be Mardy Fish? The American took out last year's Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych by exposing the 6'5" Czech mobility deficit with blistering groundstrokes into the corners and confident volleys following very big serves. Nadal was lucky to escape his meeting with Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round but did not come away unscathed; apparently there is a foot or heel injury which is invisible to MRIs but which caused Nadal to take a 9-minute injury time-out at 6-all in the first set. The 2-time defending champion won that 1st set tie-break (despite being 0-3 down) and went on to win the match 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4. Mardy has only one won set against Nadal in 5 career meetings, but all of their matches were played before Fish transformed himself by losing 30 pounds and dedicating himself to fitness. The results have been extraordinary: he is now the top rated American male and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Unless Nadal's injury plays a factor, I still don't see Fish advancing from his first Wimbledon quarterfinal to his first Wimbledon semifinal. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Feliciano Lopez ESP. The only drama in this match will be who will be the first to mention the "controversy" that one of the player's parents finds the other player attractive. Feliciano Lopez is definitely an excellent grass-court player and is unquestionably one of the most handsome players on the tour. He is in his third career Wimbledon quarterfinal, which is the furthest he has ever been in any major.  In 2011 he has already achieved a number of firsts, including having a match point against Roger Federer and defeating Andy Roddick for the first time. That being said, Murray has the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and after a surprisingly good result at this year's French Open appears to be comfortable with pressure he faces to play his best tennis in SW19. Murray has yet to lose on grass this year. He knows he could have played much better in his 2010 Wimbledon semifinal against Nadal last year and wants another chance. I think he'll get it. PREDICTION: Murray.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). This match should be the best of the 2011 Men's Quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Tsonga is a very good grass-court player, playing (but losing) a very good final against Murrayat the Queen's Club. Tsonga actually has a win against Federer (on hard courts) and has only played the Swiss Maestro 5 times so the career head-to-head deficit is not overwhelming. However, the fact that he will be playing Living History, the man who is in his 29th(!) consecutive major quarterfinal  and is trying to win this tournament for a record-tying 7th time must be daunting. Interestingly, since Tsonga had to play Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov earlier in the tournament he may feel well-prepared to handle the real Federer on the big stage this time. Federer was able to dismiss Mikhail Youzhny in four sets after inexplicably dropping the first set tie-break after holding a 4-2 lead at the change over but he really didn't look comfortable to me despite the 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-3 scoreline. Youzhny is a crafty veteran but he does not possess the firepower to really give Federer difficulties at crucial moments. Tsonga does. That being said Federer is aiming for his 27th major semifinal and 22nd major final. I believe that he will reach both. PREDICTION: Federer. 

Bernard Tomic AUS  vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). For the first time in 25 years one of the men's quarterfinalists is an 18-year-old, Bernard Tomic. Australians, especially his father, have been talking up Tomic's talent for years so it is impressive the youngster has matched a feat last achieve by Boris Becker. But there the similarities end. Tomic's game is like Murray 2.0 when he was 18: lots of different spins, excellent movement, full of guile and almost zero aggression.  It is not an attractive picture. Djokovic, despite only losing one match (out of 46 played!) all year long, has progressed through the draw like a ninja, silently dispatching his opponents by gliding around the court, seeming to do very little only to see the vanquished drop to the ground, defeated. He had a slight hiccup against a game Marcos Baghdatis, but one never really believed that the World's #2 was in any danger of losing. I have a very similar feeling about this match. Most likely for the second major in a row, the Top 4 players will reach the semifinals.   PREDICTION: Djokovic. 

RafaNole, Part XXV

The most competitive rivalry in men's tennis. Overshadowed by Fedal (for good reasons), Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic is the most competitive rivalry in men's tennis. They've played the other more times than any two active players, and I suspect if both remain healthy throughout the year, they'll face each other in many more finals. While they've so far only contested one Slam final at last year's US Open, which Rafa won in four sets to complete the Career Slam, many of their encounters have been brutal battles, despite some of the straight-set scorelines, the ultimate winner in question till the bitter end. Who can forget that spectacular 2009 Madrid semifinal that Rafa won 7-6(9) in the third? Djoke held 4 match points, if memory serves, and Rafa denied them all. That was easily the best best-of-three match that year. Shortly thereafter, Rafa left the tour to heal his knees and Djoke's tennis teetered between brilliant and woeful, losing early in Paris as well as his next two finals.



A fortnight ago, against Rafa in the Indian Wells final, Djoke rallied from a set down to earn his second Masters shield in the desert and keep his 2011 record unblemished. Today, the rematch is on. Djoke knows how to win here; he took the title in 2007. If Rafa has turned his first serve around, as he did when facing 0-40 early in the final set of his quarterfinal against Tomas Berdych, I suspect he'll put a stop to the Serbian steamroller. The World No. 2's form has dipped over his last few matches while Rafa's has risen. The World No. 1 has never won in Miami so I believe he'll be extra motivated to finally get to the winner's circle, even if it takes three sets.

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Watch the Sony Ericsson Open men's final live on CBS at 1:oo EDT

Australian Open 2011 Men's Semifinals Preview

BY MAD PROFESSAH

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Australian Open men's semifinals. I had previously correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) David Ferrer ESP (7) vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). Everyone expected a Murray-Nadal semifinal, and many many tennis fans were salivating at the prospect of seeing a match of the same caliber as their superlative ATP World Tour Championships semifinal in London. Murray did his piece first, by dispatching the extremely talented Aleksandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine who had eliminated Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 5-set matches by coming from behind to win those contests. Dolgopolov plays in an unorthodox fashion, with quick, whip-like strokes, but this generates tremendous (and surprising) power on both wings; he also has a truly unusual serve which allows him to get several free points, even from someone as good at returning serve as Andy Murray.

In the first set the younger player had 12 aces to Murray's two and was hitting winners into both corners of the court. Essentially, he was "out-Murraying" Murray. Unfortunately for Dolgopolov his quirky style is sometimes combined with an almost laissez-faire approach to finishing a point which resulted in errors instead of winners on balls that MadProfessah could have put away. These lapses enabled Murray to eke out the first set 7-5 (after blowing a 4-1 lead). The second set featured tremendous serving from Murray, losing only two points on his serve for a 6-3 win. The third set Murray should have closed out the match, but Dogopolov was able to climb back to win the 3rd in a tiebreaker 7-3 after horrendous play by Murray in the decider. The final set was never much in doubt with Murray winning the first fourteen points and the Dogopolov errors accumulating until he was at a total of 77 for the match compared to a showy 57 winners. Murray had a more sedate 33 winners and 34 errors and won the final set 6-3.

The drama of the Murray-Dolgopolov quarterfinal was quickly eclipsed when the two Spaniards took the court. After a quick service hold by Ferrer to start the match, Nadal's first service game lasted 17 minutes and consisted of 22 points with 7 deuces. Ferrer was playing very aggressively, especially with his forehand and service return; he was running down shots which would have been winners against almost anyone else. Eventually Ferrer was able to get the break, which he then immediately gave back through strong play by Nadal. On the changeover it became clear something was very wrong with Nadal, and he left the court to take an injury time out and receive treatment. It looked very much like he would retire at various points in the first set after that. Amazingly he had retired in a match played exactly a year before, in the men's quarterfinal of 2010 against Murray, also played on Australia Day, January 26. However, Nadal soldiered on and Ferrer continued his style of aggressive play, taking advantage of Nadal's clearly limited movement to his forehand side (Nadal's left thigh was heavily strapped) and maintained his composure to complete the stunning 6-4 6-2 6-3 straight sets win over the defending Roland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open champion.

Rafa's quest to be the first man in a generation (or two) to simultaneously hold all 4 major titles was over. The reason I have spent so much time reviewing the quarterfinal matches instead of previewing the semifinal match is because there is not much to say. Head-to-head Ferrer and Murray have met 5 times, (never in a Grand Slam) with Murray winning all their hard court matches relatively easily and Ferrer winning the clay court matches. Murray was able to reach the final last year, and he is playing even better one year later. Ferrer is also playing better, but, barring an injury, the result of their next hard court match will not be any different from the other three they have played before. PREDICTION: Murray in 4 sets.

Roger Federer SUI (2). vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This semifinal match-up is a reprise of the four celebrated grand slam semifinals these two have competed: the 2010 US Open semifinal won by Djokovic after saving two match points in the 5th set; the 2009 US Open semifinal won by Federer which featured the amazing tweener shot by the Swiss great on the penultimate point of the match; the 2008 US Open semifinal won in straight sets by Federer despite trailing in the first two; and the 2008 Australian Open semifinal won by Djokovic on his way to winning his first major title. So, despite Federer's impressive 13-6 head-to-head edge overall, the two have actually split the four hard-court major semifinals they have played in their careers. Bizarrely, they have never played at Wimbledon or at Roland Garros. It should be noted that Federer has won the last three times they have played, and has apparently taken energy from his defeat in New York last year. Djokovic is also playing inspired tennis, having achieved one of his career goals by anchoring his country to a Davis Cup title (something Federer has not done despite having someone as talented as Stan Wawrinka on his team). Of the four players left remaining in the tournament, Djokovic and Murray have both only dropped one tie-break set each. Djokovic in particular has looked the most impressive, taking out the #6 (Tomas Berdych), #14(Nicolas Almagro) and #29 seeds. The highest seed that Federer has had to face was Wawrinka at #19 but Gilles Simon in the first round was playing like a Top 10 player when he stretched the World #2 to 5 sets. To determine my pick, I'm going to try an do some math. There are three possibilities, which I will assume are equally likely to occur (3-set, 4-set and 5-set match with 33% probabilities). If only 3 sets of tennis are played I give Federer a 25-8 edge. In a 4-set match I give Djokovic a 17-16 edge. In a 5-set match I give Djokovic a 25-8 edge. So overall, Djokovic has a 50-49 edge. I split the last point equally and this gets Djokovic slightly ahead to reach his second Australian Open final, and second consecutive major final. PREDICTION: Djokovic (has a 50.5% chance to win).

Australian Open 2011 Men's Quarterfinal Preview

BY MAD PROFESSAH


Reuters

From top row left to right: Rafael Nadal of Spain, Roger Federer of Switzerland, Novak Djokovic of Serbia, Andy Murray of Britain. From bottom row left to right: Tomas Berdych of the Czech Republic, David Ferrer of Spain, Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland and Alexandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine.

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Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 Australian Open.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Milos Raonic CAN David Ferrer ESP (7). I thought that the 6'6" 2010 Australian Open semifinalist from Croatia would have followed up on his 5-set win over John Isner with a better showing against Rafael Nadal. However, the World No. 1 came out with a strong game plan since Cilic had beaten him in their one meeting in October 2009 and dismantled the Croatian in straight sets 6-2 6-4 6-3. David Ferrer has been called the best service returner in the world by both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and he demonstrated that ability against the huge serving 20-year-old, 6-foot-5-inch Canadian. Ferrer is only 5'9" but has optimized the amount of tennis success a male player can extract from such a slight frame. He is also one of the fittest players on tour and very speedy. The problem is, everything he can do, Nadal can do better, and Nadal is a lefty. Head-to-head the two have played 14 times with the more celebrated Spaniard winning all but 3 of their meetings. Ferrer does have a notable win over Nadal in the 2007 US Open quarterfinals, but unfortunately he will be playing the vastly improved 2011 version. The difference will be very clear. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 sets.

Robin Soderling SWE (4) Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). The only unseeded player in the final 8 is the 22-year-old counterpuncher from Ukraine. From the way World No. 4 Robin Soderling was dismissing his opponents and hitting the ball in first three rounds I had expected him to have few problems getting past Dolgopolov but Soderling has never done well at the Australian Open and also doesn't like to play in windy conditions. That being said, the biggest problem he had on court was not the weather but the phenomenal defense and gigantic serving of the Ukrainian. Soderling was not playing his best tennis and ran into an opponent who could take advantage of this opportunity to reach his first major quarterfinal. Andy Murray has been playing some of the sharpest tennis of any of the legitimate contenders. He demolished crafty lefty Jurgen Melzer and has yet to lose more than 3 games in a set through four rounds! Melzer at No. 11 and Guillermo Garcia Lopez at No. 32 are the only seeded players the Brit has faced on his way to an inevitable showdown with World No. 1 Rafael Nadal in the semifinals, whom he was on track to dismiss in the quarterfinals last year when Nadal retired. Of course the Spaniard went on to win every other Grand Slam for the rest of 2010, but I think that Murray does not fear Nadal on a hard-court. Will we see a reprise of the 2010 Australian Open final between Murray and Federer or a reprise of the 2009 Australian Open final between Nadal and Federer or something else? Only time will tell. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets.

Tomas Berdych CZE (6) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This should be the best battle of the quarterfinal round, a showdown between the 2010 Wimbledon finalist and the 2010 US Open finalist. Djokovic has won this title before (over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008) although the Frenchman was able to get revenge last year in this round. Head-to-head Berdych has only beaten Djokovic once, but it was a blowout in the 2010 Wimbledon semifinals. Since then, the Serbian has had multiple breakthroughs, including an epic 2010 US Open semifinal win over Roger Federer and anchoring his country to their first ever Davis Cup title. Berdych played near-perfect tennis in a tremendous 3-set dismissal of Fernando Verdasco in the 4th round (featuring a final set where the Czech was crushing the ball and had either 1 or 2 unforced errors). If Berdych plays like that, even a prodigiously talented ball-striker and mellifluously mobile player as Djokovic will have trouble surviving the onslaught. Another factor is that Djokovic's results are often sensitive to the weather conditions; if this match is played during the day then even a 3-set win will be unlikely for the Serb. PREDICTION: Djokovic in 3 sets or Berdych in 4 or 5 sets.

Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (19) vs. Roger Federer SUI (2). These two are best friends and share a lot in common: they come from the same country, are both young fathers and are both undefeated in 2011 so far. Together they won the Gold medal in men's doubles at the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Head-to-head the two have played 7 times, with Wawrinka winning once on clay. They have only played once in a grand slam, with Federer winning that as well. Wawrinka has come up with some good upsets in the last two Slams (defeating Andy Roddick and Gael Monfils in this tournament and Andy Murray and Sam Querrey in the 2010 US Open) but I doubt that storyline will continue with the defending champion. This match should feature some exquisite one-handed backhands: my favorite shot! PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

Video: Berdych Visits Melbourne Zoo

Best (Men's) Tennis Matches of 2010

Here are my picks for the "best" (or most memorable) tennis matches by men in 2010. These are basically the matches that had the most impact on me while they were occurring, feature some of the best play, had the most impact on the rest of the tennis world or are matches that I would most likely to watch again in the future. You can see my previous lists: Best Men's Tennis Matches of 2009 and Best Men's Tennis Matches of 2006. (There were no men's lists in 2007 or 2008.) I also have posted the Best Women's Tennis Matches of 2010.

1. J. Isner USA d. N. Mahut FRA, 6-4 3-6 6-7(7) 7-6(3) 70-68, Wimbledon 1st Round, London.

A match for the ages. A tennis match that transcends tennis, and possibly sport itself. Two relatively unheralded players played a match which lasted 11 hours and 5 minutes, by far the longest match ever. The final set itself is a marvel, shattering the record for the longest match--in terms of time (8 hours,11 minutes) and number of games (138) played. The list of records broken is a litany of exceptionalism which is unlikely ever to be matched. When the rest of the tennis of 2010 is long-forgotten Isner-Mahut will still be referred to. What was most remarkable that despite playing so long, there was still brilliant tennis for vast portions of the match. This was truly an example of the cliche where it is sad that in every game there has to be a winner.

2.  R. Nadal ESP d. A. Murray GBR, 7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(6), ATP World Tour Finals semifinal, London.

The penultimate match of the 2010 season was one of the most exciting, well-played matches of the year. Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray had met three times before in 2010, with the Briton leading 2-1. However, this semifinal match at the Year-Ending Championships was being held before a British crowd which was considered to be a disadvantage for Murray. Many people do not like Murray's game, feeling that he plays too defensively given the talent, power and mobility he possesses (Gael Monfils suffers from similar complaints), but in this match Murray confounded his critics by being as aggressive as I have ever seen him play. The match was probably decided in the first set. There, both players  played well, with Murray serving exceedingly well but after his serve failed him in the tiebreaker Nadal was able to tuck the set away on his first and only set point. In the second set, things were pretty even until Nadal went through a very bad patch at 3-all and basically donated the second set to Murray. In the third set Nadal got an early break which he was able to nurse into a 5-3 lead. Murray was able to hold serve and when Nadal served for the match at 5-4 he was broken despite holding a match point. In the inevitable tiebreak Murray continued his aggressive play but was rewarded with errors instead of winners. He can take heart that he at least went down slugging away and if he can apply this mentality to future matchups with his higher ranked rivals the results may be different.

3.  N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Federer SUI, 5-7 6-1 5-7 6-2 7-5, U.S. Open semifinal, New York.

The greatest Grand Slam match played this year was the second men's semifinal at Super Saturday at the U.S. Open in New York. For the fourth year in a row Roger Federer faced Novak Djokovic at the last major of the year, having beaten him the first three times in one final and two semifinals. This time, history seemed prepared to repeat itself when Federer earned double match point at 15-40, 4-5 in the final set. The number of times Federer had lost a grand slam match after holding a match point in his career can be counted on one hand (without using all of the fingers). However, the young Serb was able to be very aggressive on these match points and after getting past that near-death experience was able to use the mental momentum gained to immediately break Federer in the very next service game and serve out the win. The match featured long streaks of very high-quality tennis from both sides, with both players displaying impeccable defense and offense. After winning 5 U.S. Opens in a row, Federer has now lost in the last two to younger challengers. Is this a sign of things to come? Only time will tell.

4.  R. Federer SUI d. A. Murray GBR, 6-3 6-4 7-6(11), Australian Open final, Melbourne.

The highest quality grand slam final of the year featured yet another historic performance by Roger Federer as he was able to beat a player who has a career head-to-head edge against him in straight sets. Murray did not play badly, Federer was simply on fire for exactly the optimal time which allowed him to win each set. The third set in particular Federer should have lost but he was able to finally earn the break back and set up one of the classic tie-breaks of all time--a 24-point thriller that ended with Federer winning the match and his record 16th grand slam singles title.

5.  G. Monfils FRA d. R. Federer SUI, 7-6(7) 6-7(1) 7-6(4), Paris ATP Masters semifinal, Paris. 

Gael Monfils is a 6' 4", 180 pound Frenchman of African descent with size 15 feet who has long been predicted to do great things in tennis. He is one of the most dynamic players on tour and easily one of the fleetest of foot. He often responds well to a supportive crowd and has had some of his best results in front of Parisian crowds. Federer had never lost to Monfils and was probably not worried when he somehow lost the first set in a close tie-break. However, even Federer must have been surprised by the Frenchman's tenacity and will-to-win despite being down 4-1 in the 3rd set. Somehow, Monfils was able to save (count 'em) five match points at 4-5 through tremendous defense (his mighty serve basically deserted him on match points down so Monfils had to win those points the hard way). This was the fourth example of a match in 2010 where Federer had a match point and went on to lose the match (l. Djokovic US Open semifinals, l. Berdych Miami Masters 4th Round, l. Baghdatis Indian Wells 3rd Round, l. Monfils Paris Masters semifinals). Hopefully, Federer's new coach Paul Annacone will try to work on raising the level of his charge's aggression on big points (his often-atrocious break-point conversion rate should be another focus of improvement for the Swiss great) and we look forward to seeing the results in 2011. For Monfils, this was an amazing result which hopefully will spur him on to greater results next year and beyond.

6.  R. Nadal ESP d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-2, U.S. Open final, New York.

 After the fireworks of the men's semifinal between Federer and Djokovic, this final was something of an afterthought, especially since  for the third year in a row it was played on Monday instead of Sunday due to inclement weather (get a roof already, New York!). The tennis quality was reasonably high but Nadal secured his inevitable date with destiny by achieving the career grand slam at the tender age of 24 years old, just 15 months after his great rival had achieved the same feat in Paris. Nadal and Federer both have claims to be the greatest of all time, with Nadal at 9 majors to Federer's 16 but is 5 years younger (and further along at comparable ages). The GOAT question will not be decided until after both men have retired, but without doubt this match was a seminal moment in tennis history, one to be remembered for a long time as Nadal joined the small select group of career grand slam holders.

7.  R. Federer SUI d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-3 3-6 6-1, ATP World Tour Finals final, London.

 Any match between Federer and Nadal is a marquee event, but this contest, following the best match of the year between top players (Nadal-Murray semifinal) was the culmination of the season in which Nadal won 3 consecutive grand slam tournaments. With Nadal sporting a gaudy 14-7 career head-to-head record against Federer some people thought he would cement his dominance with a win here. They were incorrect, however, because on hard courts the two greats are more evenly matched, with a very slight edge to Federer. The actual tennis was high quality, but the sets were somewhat lopsided in score. Even small lapses can be converted into 6-3 sets and a large lapse results in a 6-1 blowout between these two rivals who know each other's games so well. In the end Federer was better on the day and postponed the discussion of which of the two men will be at the top of the heap in history's final estimation.

8.  R. Soderling SWE d. R. Federer SUI, 3-6 6-3 7-5 6-4, French Open quarterfinal, Paris.

One year after engineering the upset of the decade by handing 4-time defending champion Nadal his sole defeat (ever!) at Roland Garros, the tall, strong Robin Soderling repeated the effort by ending Federer's incredible streak of grand slam semifinals at 23 with a 4-set win over the defending champion. History was repeated again a few days later, when, after reaching the French Open final, Soderling lost in a surprisingly non-competitive fashion. However, this match, like last year's defeat of the defending champion will be long remembered by tennis fans. It should be noted that Federer hasn't forgotten either, and hasn't lost to the Swede since (but Nadal has).

9.  T. Berdych CZE d. R. Federer, 4-6 6-3 6-1 6-4, Wimbledon quarterfinal, London.

A few weeks after losing his hold on the #1 ranking and his famous semifinal streak, Federer had his dominance on grass ripped from his grasp as Tomas Berdych showed that his inaugural win over the Swiss player in Miami was not a fluke but a harbinger. The 6' 5", 200 pound Czech simply played a near-perfect match on Federer's home turf of Wimbledon's Centre Court, dismissing the defending champion in 4 crisp sets. Although Berdych was able to follow up his win with a victory over Novak Djokovic in the semifinal, he was unable to compete effectively against Nadal in the final, succumbing in straight sets to the Spaniard while I watched in the stands. Unsuccessfully defending his title in two consecutive grand slams, failing to reach the semifinals twice in a row must have been a dreadful blow to Federer, but he can seek solace in his quarterfinal streak, which now stands at 26 and counting.

10 F. Verdasco ESP d. D. Ferrer ESP, 5-7 6-7(8) 6-3 6-3 7-6(4), U.S. Open 4th Round, New York.

The only other match on this list besides the Isner-Mahut classic which does not feature a grand slam champion was this all-Spaniard showdown between two of the fittest (and best-looking) players on the men's tour in the 4th round of the 2010 US Open. It also happens to feature one of the most amazing match points in the history of Open tennis. It should be noted that this fifth-set tiebreak occurred after nearly 4 1/2 hours of grinding, extended-rally play, after Verdasco had already been down two(!) breaks in the deciding set and fought back to even the match. What happens on match point deserves no words, just your admiration:

Absolutely amazing!

HONORABLE MENTIONS

R. Soderling SWE d. T. Berdych CZE, 6-3 6-3 3-6 5-7 6-3, French Open semifinal, Paris.

A. Murray GBR d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-3 7-6(2) 3-0 ret., Australian Open quarterfinal, Melbourne.

R. Soderling SWE d. M. Llodra FRA, 6-7(0) 7-5 7-6(6), ATP Paris Masters semifinal, Paris.

A. Murray GBR d. R. Federer SUI, 7-5 7-5, Canadian ATP Masters final, Toronto, Canada.

A. Murray GBR d. R. Federer SUI, 6-3 6-2, Shanghai ATP Masters final, Shanghai, China.

R. Nadal ESP d. T. Berdych CZE, 6-3 7-5 6-4, Wimbledon final, London.

R. Federer SUI d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-4 3-6 6-1, Swiss Indoors final, Basel, Switzerland.

R. Nadal ESP d. R. Soderling SWE, 6-3 7-5 6-4, French Open final, Paris.

R. Nadal ESP d. A. Murray, 6-4 7-6(6) 6-4, Wimbledon semifinal, London.

Y-H. Lu TPE d. A. Roddick USA, 4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 9-7, Wimbledon 4th Round, London.

T. Berdych CZE d. R. Federer SUI, 6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(6), Miami ATP Masters 4th Round, Miami.

R. Federer SUI d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-1 6-4, ATP World Tour Finals semifinal, London.

S. Wawrinka SUI d. A. Murray GBR, 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3 6-3, U.S. Open 3rd Round, New York.

J. Melzer AUT d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-4 3-6 2-6 6-2 7-6(3), French Open quarterfinal, New York.

J-M. Del Potro ARG d. J. Blake USA, 6-4 6-7(3) 5-7 6-3 10-8, Australian Open 2nd Round, Melbourne.

M. Cilic CRO d. J-M Del Potro ARG, 5-7 6-4 5-7 7-5 6-3, Australian Open 4th Round, Melbourne.

L. Hewitt AUS d. R. Federer SUI, 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4, Gerry Weber Open final, Halle, Germany.

J-W. Tsong

World Tour Finals 2010 Day 1 Open Thread

by Craig Hickman


Reuters

Tennis players (L-R) Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, Robin Söderling, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Andy Roddick, Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer are pictured standing together with British Prime Minister David Cameron (4th L) outside 10 Downing Street in London, November 18, 2010.

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The final ATP event of yet another long and grueling year is upon us. Because I haven't seen enough tennis in the latter half of the season, I can make no predictions whatsoever.

Savannah's World has an excellent and artistic preview posted. Those interspersed head shots are lovely.

Tell us what you think about the draw and who you believe will prevail.

Enjoy tennis.

US Open Series Update

BY MADPROFESSAH

Roger Federer defeated Novak Djokovic 6-1 3-6 7-5 to regain his World #2 ranking and defending champion Andy Murray defeated World #1 Rafael Nadal to retain his World #4 ranking in today's semifinals at the Toronto Masters.

Federer followed up his clutch win over Tomas Berdych (despite being down 2-5 in the deciding set!) to improve to 10-5 against the Serbian. The Swiss player was up 6-1 2-0 and was two points away from a second break when after holding Djokovic smiled and relaxed and reduced his error count considerably while Federer continued to struggle on break points and ended up losing the set. In the third set, Federer took a commanding 4-1 lead and had multiple opportunities for a 5-2 lead. Instead, he got broken and the next game was a titantic 15-minute struggle (9 deuces!) which Djokovic won to even the match at 4-all in the 3rd. Federer fell behind 15-40 on his very next service game but served three consecutive huge first serves to get himself out of trouble and nosed ahead 5-4. The match looked like it was going to a deciding set tie-break with Djokovic up 40-15 on his serve at 5-6 but Federer fought back to deuce and won the match on his first match point after another backhand and forehand error by the former World #2.

The first semifinal between Murray and Nadal was relatively uneventful, with ineffectual serving from the World #1 which eventually led to a deciding break in the first set. In the second set, Murray had an early break which he relinquished to even the match and then surprisingly Nadal lost the 9th game of the match on his serve through some excellent returns from Murray, who then coolly served out the set to win the match.

Tomorrow's final should be a reprise of this year's Australian Open men's final which was won by Federer. Murray, however leads their head-to-head 6-5 but Federer has won their three match-ups in finals (2008 US Open final, 2010 Australian Open final and the Thailand Open).

I expect a barn-burner tomorrow with Federer pulling it out in 3-sets.

On the women's side Kim Clijsters will face Maria Sharapova. Sharapova has won the last 3 times they have played, but Clijsters leads their head-to-head 4-3. I like the defending 2009 US Open champion versus the 3-time major champ.

He Needed The Crowd

Roger Federer barely beat Tomas Berdych in a third-set tiebreak in the quarterfinals of the Rogers Cup.

But in sport, barely doesn't matter.

The propagandists give the "greatest of all time" credit for his aggressive game and resolve.

I give credit to the crowd.

If you saw the match, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

If you didn't, I imagine someone else will fill you in.

If you're a fan of the man in the pink paneled shirt, you probably agree with the propagandists and nothing anyone else can say will matter a crumb.

Back to the campaign.

WIMBLEDON 2010: Men's Final Preview

Tomas Berdych CZE (12) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). For the first time I will be watching a grand slam final live, on site. Sadly, it is also the first time in 8 years that my favorite male player Roger Federer will not be in the Wimbledon men's final. It's also doubtful that this year's final will be as monumental a battle as the 2008 classic now called "the match of the century" won by Rafael Nadal or Federer's 2009 triumph of will over Andy Roddick.

I have previously predicted the results of the quarterfinals (1 of 4) and semifinals (0 of 2), so clearly I've not been having great results in predicting the men's matches this year. It's also difficult to pick a winner between Tomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal. On paper, Nadal should win since he has a 7-3 career head-to-head record against the young Czech. However, clearly Berdych is not the same player who has lost to Nadal 7 times.

Berdych is playing in his first Grand Slam final, which very few people win (Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling have all failed to do so. Juan Martin del Potro is the exception which proves the rule.) The great ones (like Federer and Nadal) do. Will Berdych be following in the footsteps of his countryman Ivan Lendl and become a late-blooming great?

[Correction by Craig Hickman: In addition to del Potro, Rafa and Raja, Andy Roddick (USO 2003), Lleyton Hewitt (US Open 2001), and Gaston Gaudio (Roland Garros 2004) are all active players who won their first Slam final. Of the recently officially retired, Gustavo Kuerten (Roland Garros 1997), Marat Safin (US Open 2001), Thomas Johansson (Australian Open 2002) and Albert Costa (Roland Garros 2002) did as well. Some of these players are great, some are not.]

If Berdych wins today, he will become the first player to beat the World #3, World #2 and World #1 to win a slam. This would definitely be an indication he is on his way to a Lendly-like career, instead of a Soderling-like career.

If Nadal wins today, he will have completed the Roland Garros-Wimbledon double for the second time, will have a 14-match undefeated streak at Wimbledon and will have claimed his 8th Grand Slam title, just 8 behind Roger Federer, despite being 5 years his junior.

MadProfessah's prediction: Nadal (in 3 or 4 sets).

The Best Organic Surface Player

by peytonallen


Getty

The Joker was overcome by nerves. He rarely went for his shots which was surprising. He seemed content to just get balls back in play and hope Tomas [Berdych] missed. [Novak Djokovic] seemed swallowed whole by the occasion. Hats off to Berdych. Nice to see a new face in a slam final.

AP

Not sure how much of a chance he has Sunday. I said earlier this year [Rafael] Nadal's comeback wouldn't start until he got back onto the salt of the Earth. He seems poised to take the Euro double again and as Craig said he's hands down the best organic surface player, maybe since Borg. It's stunning to think about the '07 Wimby final, or even the '06. He's a few points away from going for his 3rd or 4th title right now.

For as much talk about the future of tennis being giant men flinging new age rackets with ease, there's a great percentage the first three slams of the year will still be won by Nadal and Roger Federer.

I don't think the second semifinal was as close as the score indicated. [Andy] Murray served out of his head to keep both sets close. But really for three sets once the rally was even it was all Nadal all day. He brutalized Murray with that lefty forehand. Down the line, hooked cross-court, the depth, the power, the sheer confidence the stroke was hit with today was stunning.

Nobody moves as well on grass as Nadal does right now, and maybe nobody volleys as well. From ball one he was the aggressor.

AP

Andy did not play poorly, but its clear he doesn't have a weapon off the baseline. I agree with [graf_sampras], it's a great crowd and they deserve to have a champion and one day Andy will take home a Major title, but right now he's simply not in the same grass court league as Rafa is in.

I don't think a lot of pundits really realize how great Nadal is on this surface. The crew, sans Bee Jay [Brad Gilbert] (quiet Craig), all went with Murray. And I don't see NBC pushing the story of Rafa engaging in a true defense of his title. What if he played last year? What if they had a roof in '07? I know tennis can write a different history with 'what if's' but Rafa has been the best player at this event for some time now. If he wins Sunday will people finally admit as much?

Berdych has a puncher's chance, but Rafa has improved with every match, and when he unleashed the running, leaping fist pump in round 2 I knew he was locked in mentally. He wants this title and Sunday he gets it.


AP

WIMBLEDON 2010: Men's Semifinals Preview

BY MAD PROFESSAH

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2010.
I previously made predictions for the men's quarterfinals (1 of 4 correct) and the women's quarterfinals (2 of 4 correct).

(I have now arrived in London and I have tickets for the men's final on Sunday.)

Roger Federer SUI (1) Tomas Berdych CZE (12) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). For the first time since 2002(!), Roger Federer will not be playing in the Wimbledon Men's Final. (Of course, this is the year I travelled to Wimbledon after getting lucky to get tickets to the men's final. Did I bring him my favorite player bad luck?) Anyway, After winning 23 consecutive major quarterfinals, the 16-time major champion has now lost the last two he has played in a row, to two somewhat similar opponents, the hard-hitting giants Robin Soderling (in Paris) and Tomas Berdych (in London). Unlike at Roland Garros, where Federer clearly did not play his best and was blasted off the court, at Wimbledon Federer was defeated while still playing about as well as he's played most of the year. (Which is to say, not his best ever, but possibly the best he can do right now.) His failure to defend his two major titles from last year (and the fact he has won only won tournament all year, the 2010 Australian Open) means that the former World #1 will fall to World #3 in the rankings on Monday. This means that Federer will remain stuck one heartbreaking week behind matching Pete Sampras' record of 286 weeks at #1 for the foreseeable future. Will he ever get there? I believe so. And it may just be what keeps the Swiss master in the game until the 2010 London Olympics as he has promised before. Berdych has started a streak of his own; for the second consecutive major the Czech player has made the semifinals. Berdych played an astonishing match against Federer, hitting 51 winners to Federer's 44 and only making 23 unforced errors to Federer's 18 (and 6 of those were double faults by Berdych going for second serves). Although I predicted a different match-up, I am not unduly upset by what transpired today, I do believe the better player on the day won the match. As expected, with the shock defeat of Andy Roddick by Yen-Hsun Lu in the previous round, World #3 Novak Djokovic had an easy time of it to reach his second Wimbledon semifinal. Berdych and Djokovic have only played twice (a curiously low number for active players) with Djokovic having never lost. Can Berdych come back from the greatest victory of his career to date to reach his first major final? The Czech has suffered from mental frailty in the past, but is clearly playing some of his best tennis ever. Djokovic, too, is playing some excellent tennis and definitely has the game to make the most of this rare opportunity to reach his third major final (2007 US Open, 2008 Australian Open) without having to face a higher ranked player. However, he, too, has had some notably poor performances in massively important matches (the 2010 Roland Garros quarterfinal loss to Jurgen Melzer from two sets up comes to mind, as well as injury retirements at Wimbledon.) The real question is whether Berdych is on an unstoppable Juan Martin del Potro run to his first major, or will he come back to earth after beating the Greatest of all time on his best surface? PREDICTION: Djokovic (in 4 sets).

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (10) Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Robin Soderling SWE(6) Rafael Nadal ESP (2). The bottom half of the draw is where I bravely (foolishly?) predicted that upsets would happen. The mouth-watering Friday tea-time match-up between World #1 Rafael Nadal and World #1 Andy Murray was predicted at the beginning of the tournament by many. But they both had to go through some excellent players to get there. Murray lost his first set of the tournament in a tiebreak to the excessively talented Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and was two points away at 5-all from losing the second set tie-break when The Frenchman inexplicably let a floating Murray service return sail past him at the net only to watch with horror and disbelief as the ball kissed the back of the line to give Murray set point instead. The rest of the match was not pretty, with Murray dominating to a 6-7(5) 7-6)5) 6-2 6-2 win. I didn't see much of the Soderling-Nadal match (since in London all eyes were geared towards their countryman's match) but from all reports Nadal started very slowly (down 0-5) in the first set but managed to break back early in the second set. Despite serving for the second set (after Soderling was treated for a blister on his left foot) at 5-4 Nadal only barely managed to eke out the third set tiebreak and then rolled past a demoralized Soderling to win 3-6 6-3 7-6(4) 6-1. With Federer out, Nadal has an excellent chance to win the tournament, as he has winning records against all the remaining players in the draw (7-3 versus both Murray and Berdych, 14-7 versus Djokovic--which happens to be the identical record he has against Federer). However, Murray is probably the toughest opponent for Nadal at this stage of the tournament. There's no question that Murray was on his way to demolishing Nadal earlier this year in the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals when the Spaniard retired down 2 sets and 0-3. The two haven't played since, with Nadal having his best clay court season to date, and Murray his worst. Happily Wimbledon is played on grass. Additionally, the fact that Murray beat Nadal the last time they played and that this is a semifinal, not a final should help the Brit play his best tennis this year, something Murray did not do against an inspired Andy Roddick last year. Nadal has already lost the most amount of sets that he ever has on his way to winning (or defending) a major title. The 2008 Wimbledon champion has been uncharacteristically irritable and complained of pain his knees. On the other hand, Murray has lost the fewest amount of sets of any of the Top 4 players at Wimbledon this year and has been advancing later and later into the draw at Wimbledon every time he has played it. I expect that trend to continue all the way to the final, and possibly the title this year. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 or 4 sets (or Nadal in 5 sets).