WIMBLEDON 2010: Men's Final Preview

Tomas Berdych CZE (12) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). For the first time I will be watching a grand slam final live, on site. Sadly, it is also the first time in 8 years that my favorite male player Roger Federer will not be in the Wimbledon men's final. It's also doubtful that this year's final will be as monumental a battle as the 2008 classic now called "the match of the century" won by Rafael Nadal or Federer's 2009 triumph of will over Andy Roddick.

I have previously predicted the results of the quarterfinals (1 of 4) and semifinals (0 of 2), so clearly I've not been having great results in predicting the men's matches this year. It's also difficult to pick a winner between Tomas Berdych and Rafael Nadal. On paper, Nadal should win since he has a 7-3 career head-to-head record against the young Czech. However, clearly Berdych is not the same player who has lost to Nadal 7 times.

Berdych is playing in his first Grand Slam final, which very few people win (Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick and Robin Soderling have all failed to do so. Juan Martin del Potro is the exception which proves the rule.) The great ones (like Federer and Nadal) do. Will Berdych be following in the footsteps of his countryman Ivan Lendl and become a late-blooming great?

[Correction by Craig Hickman: In addition to del Potro, Rafa and Raja, Andy Roddick (USO 2003), Lleyton Hewitt (US Open 2001), and Gaston Gaudio (Roland Garros 2004) are all active players who won their first Slam final. Of the recently officially retired, Gustavo Kuerten (Roland Garros 1997), Marat Safin (US Open 2001), Thomas Johansson (Australian Open 2002) and Albert Costa (Roland Garros 2002) did as well. Some of these players are great, some are not.]

If Berdych wins today, he will become the first player to beat the World #3, World #2 and World #1 to win a slam. This would definitely be an indication he is on his way to a Lendly-like career, instead of a Soderling-like career.

If Nadal wins today, he will have completed the Roland Garros-Wimbledon double for the second time, will have a 14-match undefeated streak at Wimbledon and will have claimed his 8th Grand Slam title, just 8 behind Roger Federer, despite being 5 years his junior.

MadProfessah's prediction: Nadal (in 3 or 4 sets).

Quote For The Day

"I think winning the US Open final in 1988 against (John) Lendl stands out as my best tennis memory. I had watched Bjorn Borg win the French Open and win Wimbledon but never be able to win the US Open, so us Swedes thought it was the hardest Grand Slam to win. Up to the point that I won it I knew I had a chance on hard courts because I was beating Lendl, (John) McEnroe and (Stefan) Edberg on the surface, but at the US Open it just seemed that bit tougher. So to beat Lendl in ’88 after having lost to him in ’87 and to win playing a really tactical game and hitting shots that I wouldn’t usually hit, that was incredible."--Mats Wilander

Roland Garros 2009 Men's Final Preview

Robin Söderling SWE (23) vs. Roger Federer SUI (2). For the fourth year in a row, Roger Federer is in the Roland Garros final, his 19th career final, matching Ivan Lendl's career record. However, for the first time, Federer will not have his arch-nemesis standing in the way of a major title in Paris. The new opponent is Robin Söderling, who executed one of the great tennis upsets of all time last Sunday when he dismissed world No. 1 Rafael Nadal (who had never lost a match at the French Open!) in four sets 6-2 6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2).

When 4-time defending champion Nadal lost in the fourth round, most people thought that Federer became the prohibitive favorite to win the 2009 Roland Garros title. However, since then Federer needed 5 sets to get past a spirited challenge from Tommy Haas in the fourth round and another 5 sets to get past Juan Martín del Potro in the semifinals. Federer was 5-0 and had never lost a set to the Argentine kid but the del Potro who competed on Friday easily won the first set and put up stiff resistance for nearly 3 and a half hours, finally succumbing 3-6 7-6(2) 2-6 6-1 6-4. And this wasn't even the best match of the day, that honor was bestowed upon the barnburner Fernando Gonzalez and Soderling threw down.

Söderling started off very well, winning the first two sets by blasting winners and serving big and got himself to within 6 points of winning during the 3rd set. Then Gonzalez managed to hold, break and hold and suddenly Söderling went through a bad patch and found himself down 0--3 and 1-4 in the fifth and final set. Amazingly, Söderling was able to win 5 consecutive games to clinch his first ever Grand Slam final. He and Gonzo combined for a mind-boggling total of 143 winners, 75 by the eventual winner of the match.

Sunday's final will be huge for both players, but there's no question more of the pressure is on Federer. Everyone expects him to win, since he is no longer facing nadal. If Federer does win, he can silence (most of) the naysayers who would deny him title of the Greatest Of All Time by winning his 14th major title and completing his career Grand Slam. If Söderling wins, he will ensure his name will be enshrined in the history books, as one of the other men who denied (or delayed?) Federer achieving from achieving this status and who beat and replaced Nadal as the King of Clay.

Head-to-head Federer has played Söderling nine times on multiple surfaces and only ever lost one tiebreak set to him but very many of the sets have been close, showing that even before his Paris breakthrough the Swede was a dangerous opponent. The new Söderling is even more lethal, because he surely believes he is on a Mission with Destiny and he now also possesses a powerful, fit body to complement his powerful groundstrokes and nervy serving (120-plus mph second serves).

However, Federer is the most talented player of his generation and at the end of the day he should be able to use his versatility and variety to come up with a solution to win the match. It is also likely that since Söderling is playing in his first Grand Slam final, mentally he will be satisfied with the Finalist label, while Federer will settle for nothing less than his hands on the trophy at the end of the day, for the fourteenth time in a major.

Mad Professah's pick: Federer in 4 sets.